KEY POINTS
- Bitcoin has never recorded two consecutive annual losses, but 2026 is down about 16% after 2025 fell about 6%.
- The asset would need to rise above $87,500, roughly 18% from current levels, to end 2026 in positive territory.
- Analyst Sean Hagan argues the underlying data paints a milder picture than the two red yearly candles suggest.
Bitcoin is on course for something it has not done in its history: finishing two calendar years in a row with a loss. Bitcoin Magazine reported on the issue in a Chart of the Day segment from its video channel, BMTV.
The segment looks at Bitcoin's yearly candles. According to the report, 2025 closed down about 6%. That made it the first red year to come directly after a halving, the event that cuts the rate at which new bitcoin is issued.
For 2026, the asset is down about 16% with seven weeks of the year remaining. To end the year in positive territory, Bitcoin would have to move back above $87,500, which the report describes as a rally of about 18% from where it trades now.
The segment is presented by Sean Hagan. He says many people on social media treat the two red candles as proof that Bitcoin is in trouble, and that he wanted to check the actual figures instead. In his view, the numbers may tell a different story from the headline.
The report does not spell out his full case, but the chapter list of the video shows the points he covers. They include the idea that spot ETFs pulled much of the rally forward, and a comparison with 2021, which he says came with a larger cushion of gains than 2025 did.
Other chapters argue that the difference lies in the first year of a cycle rather than the second, and that this bear market has been shorter and shallower than earlier ones. Another says that even a red 2026 would be the mildest year following a cycle top.
The video also addresses how likely the required recovery is. One chapter title says an 18% rally comes roughly one time in eight, though the report gives no further detail on how that figure was calculated.
The piece closes with the view that the headline sounds worse than the reality, and that Bitcoin today is a more mature and stronger asset. These are the presenter's arguments, not settled conclusions, and the year is not yet over.
